In advance of tonight’s 95th Oscars (which will honor the films released in 2022), I present to you: (1) my predictions for the biggest awards of the night (Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor), including a discussion of the current betting odds in each of those categories; (2) a list of Oscar acting snubs and other noteworthy performances from 2022; and (3) my personal ballot for all categories in which I have seen each film/performance (14 of the 23 total categories, with a total of 91 of the 120 nominees and 86.67% of the non-short nominees).
Rather than releasing the list of my favorite films from 2022 with this post, I will publish it separately this week. So be on the lookout for that post, which will provide reviews of my 15 favorite movies of the year and include a complete ranking of all 89 films I saw from this year’s Oscars eligibility period. With that said, check out this post in greater detail below, and make sure to tune into the 95th Academy Awards tonight at 7:00 p.m. (CST) on ABC, live from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. Enjoy the show, film fans!
Who Could, Should, and Will Take Home Film’s Biggest Awards
Best Picture
Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front OR The Banshees of Inisherin OR Top Gun: Maverick
This year, the Best Picture category has a clear frontrunner: Everything Everywhere All at Once. However, if there’s a chance any film could score an upset, it is unclear which one would do it. All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Top Gun: Maverick are all tied at +1400 for the second-best odds.
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is now one of my favorite movies of all time. Enough said.
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
At -1500 frontrunner odds, the Daniels have already secured this award at the British Academy Film Awards, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, and the Golden Globe Awards. A24 is hours away from securing its second Oscar win for Best Picture, after Moonlight won six years ago.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who Could Win: Cate Blanchett
There is a clear two-horse race in this category, and either Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett will take home the Academy Award. Blanchett won at the British Academy Film Awards, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, and the Golden Globes (in the drama category). While Michelle Yeoh is a slight betting favorite, Blanchett is scoring +190 odds to win her third Oscar.
Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh
This is simply a perfect movie, and one of its greatest strengths is its acting performances. The core in that department is Michelle Yeoh, who delivers one of the most exceptional performances of the year.
Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
I truly think this category could go either way, but in the end, with -275 betting odds, I’m taking Michelle Yeoh to land her first Oscar.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Could Win: Austin Butler
Another tight race this year is for Best Actor, where Brendan Fraser (-200) and Austin Butler (+150) will duke it out. Fraser is currently the frontrunner, but don’t count Butler out—his performance as Elvis Presley has already secured him awards at the British Academy Film Awards and the Golden Globe Awards (in the drama category).
Who Should Win: Colin Farrell
Although I really did enjoy both performances from Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser this year, if I had a vote, it would go to Colin Farrell for his stellar and profound work in The Banshees of Inisherin. Although Farrell won’t land the award (he’s currently getting third-best odds at +1400), he deserves it (in my opinion).
Who Will Win: Brendan Fraser
Talk about a comeback for the ages. Brendan Fraser was sublime in The Whale, and I really think the 54-year-old will leave the ceremony tonight with his first career Academy Award.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis OR Angela Bassett OR Kerry Condon
The most wide-open race this year in an acting category is Best Supporting Actress, as there is no clear betting “favorite.” One of three performers will win out for the award—Jamie Lee Curtis (+120), Angela Bassett (+135), and Kerry Condon (+260). The actresses have split the awards this season, with Curtis winning at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Bassett taking home the prize at both the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and the Golden Globe Awards, and Condon landing a victory at the British Academy Film Awards.
Who Should Win: Stephanie Hsu
Despite the tight race among the top three in this category, my favorite performance came courtesy of 32-year-old performer Stephanie Hsu. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a beautifully wild tale of intergenerational trauma, and although Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan are the most impressive actors in the film, Hsu is very, very close behind. At +2000 odds, Hsu won’t win tonight, but that shouldn’t diminish her shine in any way.
Who Will Win: Angela Bassett
Again, this category is a toss-up, but I think Angela Bassett ultimately wins.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Could Win: Barry Keoghan OR Brendan Gleeson
This category is all but locked up, but just for fun, the two supporting actors in The Banshees of Inisherin are getting the next-best odds at +1400. I loved this film, and I loved both performances immensely.
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan OR Barry Keoghan
I simply cannot decide who I’d vote for if given the chance this year. On the one hand, Ke Huy Quan is absolutely legendary in Everything Everywhere All at Once. On the other hand, Barry Keoghan is perfect in Banshees. Either of these two performers would make a worthy winner tonight.
Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
After tonight, Ke Huy Quan will be etched into the history books, no longer known simply for playing Short Round in 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom or Data in 1985’s The Goonies. At -4000 frontrunner odds, the only major award Quan didn’t land was the BAFTA, which went to Keoghan.
Snubs and Other Performances
Last year, I said the following: “If you think the nominees in the acting categories at the Academy Awards are always the five best from the previous year, you’re greatly mistaken.” That could not be truer this year. Here are my thoughts on some of the best performances of 2022, which should have landed an Oscar nomination:
Lead Actress: Not only did Mia Goth provide a wonderful performance in Ti West’s X this year, but she co-wrote and again starred in West’s prequel Pearl. In Pearl, Goth gives one of the single best performances from any actor in 2022. Further, I am stunned that Danielle Deadwyler was snubbed for her heart-wrenching performance in Till. My other favorite lead actress performances of 2022 were (alphabetically) Olivia Colman in Empire of Light, Rebecca Hall in Resurrection, Maika Monroe in Watcher, Florence Pugh in Don’t Worry Darling, Margot Robbie in Babylon, Taylor Russell in Bones and All, and Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande.
Lead Actor: Despite the polarizing critic reviews, I loved Babylon, and although the film features stellar performances from Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Jovan Adepo, and Jean Smart, the breakthrough role was Manuel, played by Diego Calva—he delivered a lights-out performance. Another under-appreciated performance this year was Jeremy Pope in The Inspection, wherein Pope played the role of Ellis French, a gay Black man who endures a brutal experience at a Marines boot camp—the film is based on writer/director Elegance Britton’s real-life experience, and Pope played it masterfully. My other favorite lead actor performances of 2022 were (alphabetically) Christian Bale in Amsterdam, Nicolas Cage in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, David Earl in Brian and Charles, Caleb Landry Jones in Nitram, Felix Kammerer in All Quiet on the Western Front, Cooper Raiff in Cha Cha Real Smooth, Adam Sandler in Hustle, Alexander Skarsgård in The Northman, and Sebastian Stan in Fresh.
Supporting Actress: I loved Jordan Peele’s newest film Nope this year, and the standout performer was Keke Palmer—she absolutely brought this film to life. Further, although I am glad Paul Mescal was nominated for Best Actor for Aftersun, the greatest performance in that film comes from the young breakthrough actress Frankie Corio. She was truly brilliant. My other favorite supporting actress performances of 2022 were (alphabetically) Jessie Buckley in Women Talking, Claire Foy in Women Talking, Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King, Sadie Sink in The Whale, and Jean Smart in Babylon.
Supporting Actor: Two actors who definitely deserved more awards love this year were Mark Rylance, who portrayed quite possibly the creepiest film character of 2022 in Bones and All, and Micheal Ward, who was a revelation in an otherwise average film Empire of Light. My other favorite supporting actor performances of 2022 were (alphabetically) Jovan Adepo in Babylon, Sean Harris in The Stranger, Rory Kinnear in Men, Daryl McCormack in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Pedro Pascal in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, Brad Pitt in Babylon, Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Seth Rogen in The Fabelmans, and Ben Whishaw in Women Talking.
My Personal Ballot for the 95th Academy Awards
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Triangle of Sadness
The Fabelmans
Tár
Elvis
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Ruben Östlund – Licorice Pizza
Todd Field – Tár
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Austin Butler – Elvis
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau – The Whale
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Screenplay
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund
Tár – Todd Field
The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Best Adapted Screenplay
Top Gun: Maverick – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie (screenplay); Peter Craig and Justin Marks (story); based on the film Top Gun (1986) written by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.
Living – Kazuo Ishiguro; based on the original motion picture screenplay Ikiru (1952) by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto, and Hideo Oguni
Women Talking – Sarah Polley; based on the 2018 novel of the same name by Miriam Toews
All Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell; based on the 1929 novel of the same name by Erich Maria Remarque
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson; based on characters created by Johnson and the film Knives Out (2019)
Best Original Score
Babylon – Justin Hurwitz
All Quiet on the Western Front – Volker Bertelmann
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Son Lux
The Fabelmans – John Williams
The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell
Best Sound
Top Gun: Maverick – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor
All Quiet on the Western Front – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte
The Batman – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson
Avatar: The Way of Water – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges
Elvis – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller
Best Production Design
Babylon – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
All Quiet on the Western Front – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Elvis – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
Avatar: The Way of Water – Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
The Fabelmans – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti
The Whale – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley
The Batman – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
All Quiet on the Western Front – Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
Best Film Editing
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers
Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton
The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Tár – Monika Willi
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick
Top Gun: Maverick – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher
All Quiet on the Western Front – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar
The Batman – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy
Tonight, the year in film officially closes with the granddaddy of them all—the 94th Academy Awards. And now, the time is apt for me to share my thoughts on the past year in movies. During awards season, I usually spend a month or so blogging every few days. However, with a busy work schedule and an even busier time raising a two-year-old son (who turns three in 12 days—Happy Early Birthday, Paxton), my film blog has reached a new point in its evolution over the years. Today is my first post of the awards season, but I’m coming in hot with as much information as you’d possible need heading into the Oscars. Therefore, in advance of tonight’s 94th Academy Awards (which will honor the films released last year between March 1st and December 31st), I present to you: (1) my Top 15 Films of the Year; (2) my predictions for the biggest awards of the night (Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor), including a discussion of the current betting odds in each of those categories; (3) a list of Oscar acting snubs and other noteworthy performances from 2021; (4) my personal ballot for all categories in which I have seen each film/performance (15 of the 23 total categories, with a total of 95 of the 120 nominees and 90% of the non-short nominees); and (5) a complete ranking of every film I saw from this year’s Oscars eligibility period.
This year’s Oscars is set to look quite a bit different than usual. One thing we haven’t seen since 2018 is a traditional host, but this year, Regina Hall, Amy Schumer, and Wanda Sykes will emcee the event, marking the first time the show has featured multiple hosts since that disastrous tag-team of Anne Hathaway and James Franco in 2011. I fully expect this year’s trio of hilarious women to absolutely kill it! Additionally, the live telecast is set to feature far less award categories than usual, a decision about which I am personally disappointed. Buckling under pressure from ABC executives, the Academy announced only 15 categories will be awarded during the live telecast—the other 8 will be presented by Josh Brolin and Jason Momoa off the air. A night celebrating the best in film is much more than just the sexy categories (e.g., acting, writing, and cinematography)—it’s also about recognizing the immense talent within the industry in short-film production, as well as vital technical artistry, such as film editing, sound, and production design. I hope this new format does not become the standard in years to come because it shortchanges both fans of cinema and those who work so hard behind the scenes to bring movies to life.
With that said, check out this post in greater detail below, and make sure to tune into the 94th Academy Awards tonight at 7:00 p.m. (CST) on ABC, live from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. Enjoy the show, film fans!
My Top 15 Films of the Year
No. 1 – The Worst Person in the World
Did I come into this past year in film with the general idea that my favorite movie would likely be a dark, Norwegian-language romantic dramedy? Nope. Is that exactly what ended up happening, though? Yep. This masterpiece of a film (directed and co-written by Joachim Trier) is a coming-of-age story about Julie, a young woman in Oslo trying to find herself as she approaches 30. The movie begins with a prologue, closes with an epilogue, and features a central narrative divided into 12 chapters (including “Oral Sex in the Age of #MeToo” and “Julie’s Narcissistic Circus”—the latter of which features the film’s wildest and craziest scene involving psychedelic mushrooms). It’s simply that kind of movie. The romance is relatable. The comedy is continuous. And the heart of the story is brilliant. It’s an absolute travesty lead actress Renate Reinsve (who won for Best Actress at the 2021 Cannes Film Festival) missed out on an Oscar nomination. Further, if any international film was going to land a Best Picture nomination this year, it most definitely should have been The Worst Person in the World over Drive My Car. Streaming available for purchase or rent on most major platforms.
No. 2 – Candyman
Over the last few years, Jordan Peele has transformed from sketch-show funnyman to master of horror films with distinctive social commentary. And although his 2018 film Get Out likely set the standard in this arena, his greatest work is bringing this sequel to the 1992 film of the same name to fruition as a writer and producer, not a director. This film, directed by up-and-comer Nia DaCosta, is nearly perfect in every way. The cinematography is stunning (the opening credits sequence quickly became one of my favorites of all time), the acting is superb (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II delivers one of the most haunting performances of the year), and the storytelling is remarkable (the greatest use of shadow puppetry in film history?!). Magnificent filmmaking. Streaming available for purchase or rent on most major platforms.
No. 3 – Swan Song
If you’re in the mood for science-fiction, romance, and hard drama, look no further than Swan Song, a beautiful, thought-provoking film written and directed by Benjamin Cleary. The movie is about a terminally ill husband and father who considers switching places with a clone in order to save his wife and son from facing the life-shattering pain of his impending death. Mahershala Ali is clearly one of the greatest actors working in film today (as evidenced by his two Oscar wins), and in Swan Song, he turns in a dual performance for the ages, deftly portraying both the lead, Cameron Turner, and his clone, Jack. A good drama will make you cry, and without a doubt, Swan Song did its job with me. Streaming for free for subscribers to Apple TV+.
No. 4 – Encanto
I distinctly remember the colossal hold Frozen’s “Let It Go” had on kids across the world nearly a decade ago, but that sensation has now likely been eclipsed by five words—“We Don’t Talk About Bruno.” Encanto, the latest production from Walt Disney Animation Studios, is a magical (literally) tale of family set in Colombia, and the film, which operates as an infectious musical, is enchanting. Encanto is more than just its music, though (although Lin-Manuel Miranda’s original tunes are, collectively, the proverbial cherry on top of the sundae)—it is a deeply gripping story of love, loss, and familial resolve. Moreover, the film stands as a shining beacon of cultural diversity—representation matters, and Disney delivers a beautiful love letter to Colombia. But back to that music. Although “Bruno” gets all the attention (it’s incredible, so I’m not complaining), the film features a number of other wonderful compositions, including “Surface Pressure” (my personal favorite) and “Dos Oruguitas” (which serves thematically as the heart and soul of the movie). Streaming for free for subscribers to Disney+.
No. 5 – Dune
Every so often, the battery of Best Picture nominees includes a blockbuster film amongst the more prototypical artsy movies. This year, that blockbuster is Dune (although many film fans wish Spider-Man: No Way Home received the same adulation). In the latest adaptation of Frank Herbert’s famed science-fiction novel of the same name, visionary filmmaker Denis Villeneuve delivers a visually stunning experience—in fact, Dune is my favorite of all this year’s Best Picture nominees. The movie is epic in scale (it only covers half the book, with the second half to be dealt with in Dune: Part Two, to be released on October 20, 2023), and Villeneuve was the perfect vessel for this story, having previously directed Arrival and Blade Runner 2049. In some sense, Dune reminds me of Mad Max: Fury Road, my second-favorite film of all time. Both movies are epic tales and examples of the masterful filmmaking balance between high-brow art and mass-appeal blockbuster. Streaming for free for subscribers to HBO Max.
No. 6 – The Harder They Fall
One of my new favorite westerns of all time is The Harder They Fall, an exquisite piece of original filmmaking by writer-director Jeymes Samuel (along with co-writer Boaz Yakin). When I think of this film, the first thing that will always come to mind is the opening sequence, which felt inspired by the opening scene in Inglourious Basterds. Had the movie kept up the energy from that opening scene (a tall task indeed, as that scene is perfect), this movie very well may have been my favorite of 2021. Led by an all-Black principal cast, this film is loosely based on real-life people in the American West during the 1800s. The movie is chock-full of unique style, gunslinging action, hard-hitting music, and immense acting prowess, including excellent performances from Jonathan Majors, Zazie Beetz, Lakeith Stanfield, Idris Elba, and Regina King. If you like westerns, this is a must-see. Streaming for free for subscribers to Netflix.
No. 7 – tick, tick…BOOM!
Although I’ve never personally watched Rent from start to finish, I know it is one of my wife’s favorite musical films. So, when I saw a new musical film was set to debut on Netflix about the life of the man behind Rent, I knew we had to watch. I am not really sure what I expected from this movie, but whatever those expectations were, this film exceeded them spectacularly. Tick, tick…BOOM!, Lin-Manuel Miranda’s feature directorial debut, is based on the stage musical of the same name, which itself is an autobiographical story of budding Broadway composer Jonathan Larson’s life up to that point. The music is certainly Broadway, through and through, and the story (set in New York City in the early 1990s) pulls you in and emotionally wrecks you. I already can’t wait to watch (and sing along with) this one again. Streaming for free for subscribers to Netflix.
No. 8 – Spider-Man: No Way Home
I’m going to start with a bold (yet maybe not that bold) statement: Spider-Man: No Way Home is Marvel’s best film yet. Yeah, I said it. I am a big fan of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, especially the likes of Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor: Ragnarok, Black Panther, and Avengers: Endgame, but I’m not certain any of those films has hit the mark more precisely than the third Tom Holland-led Spidey installment. I especially love the film’s introduction of a multiverse, which opens up immeasurable opportunities for future films. At a time when theater attendance is vastly dwindling (the COVID-19 pandemic sure didn’t do anything to help that), Spider-Man: No Way Home reinvigorated the industry, becoming the highest-grossing film of the year and the sixth-highest-grossing film of all time—it has made nearly $2 billion! Streaming available for purchase on most major platforms.
No. 9 – No Time to Die
No Time to Die is Daniel Craig’s final go-round as MI6 agent James Bond, and this iteration of 007 sure goes out in style. The previous four Craig-led installments in the Bond franchise haven’t necessarily been consistent—a couple were utterly incredible (Casino Royale and Skyfall), one was mehhh (Spectre), and one was downright dreadful (Quantum of Solace)—so I was a bit nervous about how this particular series would end. To my surprise, the Cary Joji Fukunaga-led movie was magnificent. For me, I now place No Time to Die right behind Skyfall for my favorite of the Craig films—it was that good! The film features a number of visually stunning set pieces (the trademark of any Bond movie), but it is the film’s emotional hook that truly drives No Time to Die to the finish line. Time to get out the gin and pour a Vesper in Daniel Craig’s honor. Streaming available for purchase or rent on most major platforms.
No. 10 – The Green Knight
At the outset, I’ll say this about The Green Knight: It was definitely mismarketed. The publicity surrounding The Green Knight ahead of its summer 2021 release made it seem as though it was generally in the same vein as most summer action blockbusters. However, it was far from typical and definitely not action-packed, as the film’s pre-release promotion led on. All this means is that it is unsurprising that a lot of film audiences didn’t care for it. For me, it just means I had to adjust my expectations during the film. In the end, I still absolutely loved this adaptation of Sir Gawain and the Green Knight, a 14th century poem about a knight of King Arthur’s Round Table. If you’ve seen A Ghost Story, you’ll know filmmaker David Lowery is far from conventional—this sentiment resonates in The Green Knight as well. The cinematography is exquisite and Lowery’s storytelling is distinctive and original. Not to mention, the acting is first-rate, led by Dev Patel in the lead role. Streaming for free for subscribers to Showtime.
No. 11 – The Suicide Squad
Let me set the scene…It is the summer of 2016. My most anticipated film of the year comes out. I’ve been anxiously awaiting its release for a year. Jared Leto as the Joker. Will Smith as Deadshot. And in the end…a steaming hot pile of garbage. I can’t possibly undersell just how awful and disappointing Suicide Squad turned out to be—it’s probably one of the most drastic examples from the past ten years of a film failing to meet expectations. And yet, I was still hyped for the sequel/re-brand, The Suicide Squad. Luckily, the newest version is downright amazing and one of the most fun movie-watching experiences I’ve had in recent years. Margot Robbie is the epitome of perfection once again as Harley Quinn (her third turn as the character), Idris Elba is lights out as Bloodsport, and John Cena nearly steals the show as Peacemaker, a role in which he also stars on HBO Max’s subsequent TV series, Peacemaker. Streaming for free for subscribers to HBO Max.
No. 12 – Zola
The setup for Zola is both simple and mesmerizing—the film is based in part on a viral 148-tweet thread posted on Twitter by Aziah “Zola” King in 2015, wherein she describes a wild and crazy road trip she took to Florida with a random stripper she met, featuring tales of murder, prostitution, and much more. Zola is a thrill ride from start to finish, and the film is held up by wonderful acting performances from Taylour Paige, Riley Keough, and Colman Domingo. Streaming for free for subscribers to Showtime.
No. 13 – A Quiet Place Part II
Despite my love for A Quiet Place, I admit I was initially skeptical about what new ground writer-director John Krasinski could cover in a sequel and whether a second installment could be as captivating as the original. By the time I finished the film, my concerns were firmly put to rest—Krasinski knocks this out of the park. Part II features immense levels of suspense, thrill, edge-of-your-seat nervousness, and it’s anchored by two stunning performances by Millicent Simmonds and Cillian Murphy. If you loved the first film, I assure you, the sequel lives up to every expectation. Streaming for free for subscribers to Paramount+.
No. 14 – Last Night in Soho
The latest film from Edgar Wright adds another eclectic installment to the English writer-director’s filmography. Wright has created comedic zombie and science-fiction films (Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, and The World’s End), a cult-classic romantic comedy (Scott Pilgrim vs. the World), and an ambitious action film (Baby Driver), and in Last Night in Soho, he gives us a psychological horror for the ages. Wright’s blend of 1960s and modern-day London is striking, and the wonderful performances by Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy certainly make the film worth the watch. Streaming available for purchase or rent on most major platforms.
No. 15 – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Based on William Shakespeare’s Macbeth, this black-and-white film adaptation provides a breath of fresh air to its nearly 400-year-old source material, displaying a masterful mixture of style, minimalism, first-rate acting (Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand in the lead roles), and captivating photography. Oscar winner Joel Coen wrote and directed this movie, and it marks the first time one of the Coen brothers directed a film without any involvement by the other brother. It turns out, Joel kills it as a solo artist. Streaming for free for subscribers to Apple TV+.
Who Could, Should, and Will Take Home Film’s Biggest Awards
Best Picture
Who Could Win: CODA or The Power of the Dog
This year’s award for Best Picture is truly a toss-up between two clear frontrunners (-120 odds for each)—the more feel-good, formulaic CODA and the more daring, artistic The Power of the Dog.
Who Should Win: Dune
As discussed above, my favorite of this year’s Best Picture nominees is Denis Villeneuve’s bold and adventurous adaptation of Frank Herbert’s epic science-fiction novel.
Who Will Win: The Power of the Dog
I am truthfully clueless as to which film’s name will be in the final envelope tonight, but my gut says it is legendary filmmaker Jane Campion’s cerebral drama set in Montana during the 1920s. The film is certainly the more audacious of the two frontrunners, and I hope the voters reward that cinematic bravery.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who Could Win: Penélope Cruz
In recent days, the odds have steadily shortened for Penélope Cruz to strike an upset in the Best Actress category—she now sits at +300, the second-best odds among the nominees. The four-time Oscar nominee delivered a beautiful, heartbreaking performance in Pedro Almodóvar’s Parallel Mothers (Cruz’s seventh cinematic collaboration with the renowned Spanish filmmaker), and if she shocks the world by receiving her second Oscar tonight, it will have been much deserved.
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain
As much as I loved the performances from Cruz and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) this year, from the moment I watched The Eyes of Tammy Faye, it has always been Jessica Chastain for me. If you’ve followed this blog since its inception, you’ll know Chastain is one of my favorite actresses in Hollywood, and for me, an Academy Award for Chastain is beyond overdue. If I had a vote, Chastain would get it for her awe-inspiring turn as the late televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker.
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Despite the surge of attention Cruz is receiving ahead of the Academy Awards, I still think in the end, Chastain (a -150 favorite) comes out victorious. Cruz has yet to win a single major award for her performance in Parallel Mothers, while Chastain took home the hardware at both the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Based on current success this awards cycle, nobody in this category appears to stand a chance against Will Smith. However, if any underdog is going to do it, it’ll be Benedict Cumberbatch for his performance as Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog. Presently, Cumberbatch is receiving odds of +500.
Who Should Win: Will Smith
So far this awards season, Will Smith has secured wins at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and BAFTAs for his performance as the real-life father of Venus and Serena Williams, Richard Williams, in King Richard. His trophy cabinet is full, but if I had a vote, he’d need to make room for one more.
Who Will Win: Will Smith
Will Smith has swept awards season with a vengeance. This performance in King Richard garnered Smith his third Academy Awards nomination in an acting category (he’s also nominated for Best Picture this year for his role as a producer for King Richard), and with frontrunner odds of -900, the Fresh Prince looks set to hoist the gold on film’s biggest night.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Could Win: Kirsten Dunst
Like the Best Actor category, the odds here do not favor a challenge to the favorite for the Oscar. However, in a universe where an upset takes place, my money would be on Kirsten Dunst to make that happen for her performance in The Power of the Dog—she is currently pulling odds of +600.
Who Should Win: Jessie Buckley
Although she likely stands no chance to actually win this year, my vote in this category would land undoubtedly on Jessie Buckley for her emotionally charged performance in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s feature directorial debut, The Lost Daughter. As a whole, I didn’t find this film particularly captivating. Olivia Colman was stellar, per usual. But the story just didn’t make its mark with me. With that said, all of the film’s standout moments came courtesy of Buckley. It doesn’t matter that the film wasn’t one of the year’s best—her performance sure was.
Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose
After sweeping the season’s major awards in this category, Ariana DeBose is nearly certain to win the Oscar for her performance as Anita (a role made famous by co-star Rita Moreno, who won the Oscar for the original 1961 film adaptation) in West Side Story—her odds currently sit at -1500. DeBose’s dominance in this category is not a fluke. Her performance is equal parts boisterous and crushing. A beautiful piece of acting.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
As if The Power of the Dog didn’t have enough acting prowess with the performances by Benedict Cumberbatch and Kirsten Dunst, the Best Supporting Actor category features nominations for both Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee for their respective roles in Jane Campion’s film. Of the two, Smit-McPhee was certainly the more impressive—if there is a surprise in this category (Smit-McPhee is currently getting the second-best odds at +450), it will be to the benefit of the 25-year-old Australian.
Who Should Win: Ciarán Hinds
He’s not going home with an Oscar tonight (+1600 odds for a win), but that doesn’t do anything to change how I feel about Ciarán Hinds’s performance in Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, a film set in Northern Ireland during the early days of The Troubles. For me, the 69-year-old Irish actor is the heartbeat of this movie—an utter masterclass in nuance.
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur
As is the case in nearly every acting category (except Best Actress), the winner here appears to be a foregone conclusion, as deaf actor Troy Kotsur is currently getting -1000 odds to win the award. A Kotsur win is understandable, as he turned in a magnum opus of a performance in CODA, anchoring the film’s funniest and most heartbreaking scenes.
Snubs and Other Performances
If you think the nominees in the acting categories at the Academy Awards are always the five best from the previous year, you’re greatly mistaken. Each year, the Academy voters overlook a number of impressive performances. Here are my thoughts on some of the year’s best:
Lead Actress: The biggest snub in this category is Renate Reinsve, who delivered a revelatory performance as the lead in my favorite movie of the year, The Worst Person in the World—she absolutely deserved an Oscar nod this year. My other favorite lead actress performances of 2021 were (alphabetically) Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza, Emilia Jones in CODA, Thomasin McKenzie in Last Night in Soho, Taylour Paige in Zola, Agathe Rousselle in Titane, and Millicent Simmonds in A Quiet Place Part II.
Lead Actor: One of the lasting memories I will have from 2021 in film is how in the world Mahershala Ali (a two-time Oscar nominee and winner) missed out on another nomination for his flawless dual performance in Swan Song—Ali proved again why he is one of the very best actors working today. My other favorite lead actor performances of 2021 were (alphabetically) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II in Candyman, Nicolas Cage in Pig, Don Cheadle in No Sudden Move, Winston Duke in Nine Days, Frankie Faison in The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain, Andrew Garfield in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jake Gyllenhaal in The Guilty, Jonathan Majors in The Harder They Fall, Dev Patel in The Green Knight, and Simon Rex in Red Rocket.
Supporting Actress: Aside from Mahershala Ali’s brilliance, Swan Song also features a beautiful performance from Naomie Harris (Ali’s Moonlight co-star), who depicts Poppy Turner (the wife of Ali’s Cameron Turner) with deft emotional skill. My other favorite supporting actress performances of 2021 were (alphabetically) Caitríona Balfe in Belfast, Kathryn Hunter in The Tragedy of Macbeth, Riley Keough in Zola, Regina King in The Harder They Fall, and Milena Smit in Parallel Mothers.
Supporting Actor: Zola was one of my favorite films of 2021, and although Taylour Paige and Riley Keough were phenomenal, Colman Domingo stole the show—his depiction of the mysterious X was ruthlessly menacing. Domingo’s dynamite performance certainly deserved more love from the Academy voters. My other favorite supporting actor performances of 2021 were (alphabetically) Anders Danielsen Lie in The Worst Person in the World, Robin de Jesús in tick, tick…BOOM!, Mike Faist in West Side Story, Vincent Lindon in Titane, Cillian Murphy in A Quiet Place Part II, and Benedict Wong in Nine Days.
My Personal Ballot for the 94th Academy Awards
Best Picture
Dune
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Nightmare Alley
Drive My Car
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Smith – King Richard
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Judi Dench – Belfast
Best Original Screenplay
The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay (screenplay); McKay and David Sirota (story)
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
King Richard – Zach Baylin
Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (based on the novel of the same name by Thomas Savage)
Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth (based on the novel of the same name by Frank Herbert)
CODA – Sian Heder (based on the 2014 French film La Famille Bélier)
The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (based on the novel of the same name by Elena Ferrante)
Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (based on the short story of the same name by Haruki Murakami)
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Raya and the Last Dragon
Flee
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Best Original Score
Dune – Hans Zimmer
Encanto – Germaine Franco
The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood
Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Best Sound
Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett
No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, and Mark Taylor
West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy
Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, and Niv Adiri
The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, and Tara Webb
Best Production Design
Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
Best Cinematography
Dune – Greig Fraser
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski
The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
Best Film Editing
Dune – Joe Walker
tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras
Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin
King Richard – Pamela Martin
Best Visual Effects
Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer
Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver
Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick
No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould
With the Oscars airing tonight, one of the wildest years in cinematic history is ending, which means my year-end film blogging is also winding up for the season. Despite the unusual nature of this past year’s film releases in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the year was still chock-full of amazing movies. It has particularly been a blast for me to write about this unique year of cinema these past couple of weeks and share those thoughts with you all. In advance of tonight’s 93rd Academy Awards, I have posted this recap. Below you will find (1) my predictions for the Best Picture category, including a discussion of the current betting odds, (2) my Top 10 Films of 2020, (3) my personal ballot for all categories in which I have seen each film/performance (14 of the 23 total categories, with a total of 89 of the 118 nominees), and (4) a complete ranking of every film I saw from this year’s Oscars eligibility period.
With that said, check out my recap and then make sure to tune into the 93rd Academy Awards tonight at 7:00 p.m. (CST) on ABC, live from Los Angeles Union Station and the Dolby Theatre, along with a number of satellite sites around the world, including in New York City, London, and Paris. Enjoy the show, film fans.
Best Picture – Who Could, Should, and Will Take Home Film’s Biggest Award
Who Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
I liked Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, but I didn’t love it. For me, it was one of the two weakest Best Picture nominees this year. The betting odds, however, view the film quite favorably—the movie is presently getting +600 odds, the best of any challenger to Nomadland. I am personally a bit surprised by these odds, but it appears if there is the chance for an upset in the Best Picture category this year, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is likely the one to make it happen.
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
As I described in great detail yesterday in my Top 10 post, Sound of Metal was my favorite movie of the year. If I had a vote for the biggest award of the night, this film would get it.
Who Will Win: Nomadland
So far this season, Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland has swept the major awards in the Best Picture-equivalent categories, winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Movie Award, and British Academy Film Award. Currently, the film is getting -670 frontrunner odds. I definitely think when the biggest award is announced late tonight, Nomadland will be victorious.
Top 10 Films of 2020 (COVID Year)
1.
Sound of Metal
2.
Judas and the Black Messiah
3.
The Invisible Man
4.
Tenet
5.
Palm Springs
6.
The Vast of Night
7.
Minari
8.
The White Tiger
9.
Promising Young Woman
10.
I Care A Lot
My Personal Ballot for the 93rd Academy Awards
Best Picture
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
The Father
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Best Director
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Steven Yeun – Minari
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman – Mank
Best Actress
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…
Best Supporting Actress
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Best Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
Judas and the Black Messiah – Will Berson and Chaka King (screenplay); Berson, King, Keith Lucas, and Kenny Lucas (story)
Sound of Metal – Abraham Marder and Darius Marder (screenplay); Derek Cianfrance and D. Marder (story)
Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father – Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller (based on Zeller’s play of the same name)
The White Tiger – Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel of the same name by Aravind Adiga)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, and Dan Swimer (screenplay); Baron Cohen, Nina Pedrad, Swimer (story); based on the character by Baron Cohen
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao, based on the book Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century by Jessica Bruder
One Night in Miami… – Kemp Powers (based on his play of the same name)
Best Documentary Feature
My Octopus Teacher
Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
Time
Collective
The Mole Agent
Best Original Score
Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste
Minari – Emile Mosseri
Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
News of the World – James Newton Howard
Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
Best Sound
Sound of Metal – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, and Michelle Couttolenc
Greyhound – Beau Borders, Michael Minkler, Warren Shaw, and David Wyman
Soul – Coya Elliot, Ren Klyce, and David Parker
Mank – Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod, Nathan Nance, and David Parker
News of the World – William Miller, John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, and Oliver Tarney
Best Production Design
Tenet – Nathan Crawley (Production Design) and Kathy Lucas (Set Decoration)
Mank – Donald Graham Burt (Production Design) and Jan Pascale (Set Decoration)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mark Ricker (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara and Diana Sroughton (Set Decoration)
News of the World – David Crank (Production Design) and Elizabeth Keenan (Set Decoration)
The Father – Peter Francis (Production Design) and Cathy Featherstone (Set Decoration)
Best Cinematography
Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
Mank – Erik Messerschmidt
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael
Best Film Editing
Sound of Metal – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten
Complete Ranking of All Films Seen from 2020 (COVID Year)
1
Sound of Metal
2
Judas and the Black Messiah
3
The Invisible Man
4
Tenet
5
Palm Springs
6
The Vast of Night
7
Minari
8
The White Tiger
9
Promising Young Woman
10
I Care A Lot
11
The Climb
12
Nomadland
13
Blow the Man Down
14
Soul
15
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
In today’s post, I will review the Best Actress category, home of the most wide-open race at this year’s Academy Awards. Who will win is anybody’s guess, so let’s dive in for an analysis of the category.
The Nominees
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Based on August Wilson’s 1982 play of the same name, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom follows the real-life Ma Rainey (played by Viola Davis), a highly influential African-American blues singer in the 1920s. The film focuses on a tumultuous studio recording session with Ma Rainey and her band in Chicago. Viola Davis is one of the best and most talented actors currently working, and with her turn this year as Ma Rainey, she further demonstrates her impressive range, taking on a distinct physical transformation to play the brash blues legend. Over the course of the film, it becomes apparent Ma Rainey’s generally difficult demeanor with respect to her producers is shaped by her experience as an African-American woman in a world controlled by white men, and Davis depicts the character’s tough-nut-to-crack temperament with strident passion and exquisite flair.
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Set in the 1940s, Lee Daniels’s The United States vs. Billie Holiday follows the life and struggles of Billie Holiday, one of the most instrumental jazz singers in the history of music. In particular, the film focuses on the U.S. government’s racially motivated preoccupation with targeting and harassing Holiday. The government persecuted Holiday under the guise of drug-related offenses, but Daniels explores another motivation—stopping Holiday from performing “Strange Fruit,” her anti-lynching song, which became an anthem for the civil rights movement. Three-time Grammy Award-nominated singer Andra Day’s performance in this film’s leading role is absolutely stunning, made all the more startling by the fact it is only the third film credit of her career. (She previously played the role of “Minton’s Singer” in Marshall and voiced the character “Sweet Tea” in Cars 3.) Although the film as a whole had a number of flaws, Day’s take on Billie Holiday was surely not one of them—she was singularly the film’s dazzling high point. Day transformed into Holiday, delivering striking moments of passion and restrained moments of intimacy, and it deservedly earned her an Oscar nomination this year.
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
The setup for Pieces of a Woman is simple—a young couple, Martha (Vanessa Kirby) and Sean (Shia LaBeouf), lose their baby during a home birth gone wrong, and they are left to grapple with the emotional toll of this tragic event, while also dealing with the stress of a legal case being pursued against the midwife who delivered the child. For me, it was impossible to watch Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman and not come away thinking, “Wow, that is what acting is all about.” The film’s storyline is, at its very core, crushing and heartbreaking, and Kirby delivers every single one of her character’s raw and painful emotions with devastating exactitude. It is a shame Kirby hasn’t been shown more love this awards season in what has turned out to be a wide-open Best Actress race. (She’s been nominated at a number of noteworthy award shows, but her only significant win was the Volpi Cup for Best Actress, the award given out at the Venice Film Festival.) The portrayal of Martha required Kirby to embody the essence of a shattered woman, consumed by inconceivable grief, while also to methodically demonstrate the character’s ultimate revival and enduring spirit to press on—Kirby checked these boxes off with apparent ease. It was an outstanding expression of pure acting prowess.
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
In Nomadland, following the death of her husband and the closing down of the manufacturing plant in her hometown (at which she worked), Fern (played by Frances McDormand) makes the decision to sell most of her personal possessions, purchase a van, and essentially live a “nomad” life without any fixed residence, driving from city to city in search of odd jobs here and there to make enough money to survive. Make no mistake, the legendary Frances McDormand is, in accordance with every other role she’s ever played, wonderful in Nomadland. However, for me, if I was going to sneak in another performer who was snubbed this year (see discussion of such snubs below), McDormand would probably be the one to make way. Nomadland is definitely one of the best films this year (when I reveal my rankings in a few days, you will definitely hear more about it), but considering its beautiful story, cinematography, collective supporting performances, and near-documentary style of filmmaking, it’s a film where the whole is greater than the sum of its individual parts, including McDormand.
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Although Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman is full of unique and intriguing twists and turns, the setup is fairly straightforward: Cassie (played by Carey Mulligan), motivated by the rape of her best friend Nina, spends her nights pretending to be drunk at bars in an effort to attract morally corrupt men (who pass themselves off to her as “nice guys”) in order to ultimately confront those guys about their skeezy behavior and hold them accountable—Cassie is most definitely a modern-day femme fatale. Eventually, Cassie directs her mission to everybody connected to Nina’s rape, which is where the story takes off. Carey Mulligan is nothing short of amazing in this darkly comedic thriller, a bona fide departure from her trademark appearances in period pieces and hard dramas. Cassie is ice cold and vastly different than any character I’ve ever seen Mulligan depict, and if her entrancingly exceptional performance in Promising Young Woman is any indication, I hope we see Mulligan again in the near future taking on another complex modern figure—Mulligan is a first-rate pro!
Snubs and Other Performances
In addition to the nominees, this year supplied movie watchers with a number of other incredible acting performances from female leads who easily could have gotten Oscar nominations themselves—this category is just so unbelievably stacked. First, Jessie Buckley was hauntingly superb in Charlie Kaufman’s enigmatic psychological thriller I’m Thinking of Ending Things, nimbly navigating a cinematic maze of strange, surrealist ideas. Second, in a movie chock-full of first-rate acting performances, Han Ye-ri wonderfully delivered a quiet, yet poignant, depiction of a wife struggling to balance her own happiness against the dreams of her ambitious husband in Minari. Third, Rosamund Pike is enthralling in the Netflix dark comedy I Care A Lot as Marla Grayson, a charismatic (yet brash) con artist who preys on elders in assisted living communities to steal their money and valuables. I couldn’t help but see a lot of similarities in this character to Amy Dunne (the character Pike played in 2014’s Gone Girl, which earned Pike her lone Oscar nomination), so it’s no wonder Pike knocked the performance out of the park. Additionally, one of my favorite acting performances this year came courtesy of breakout actress Bukky Bakray, who starred in Rocks, a British film about a teenage girl who must take care of not only herself, but also her little brother, after her mother abandons the family. Bakray, just a teenager herself, gave a beautiful, gut-wrenching portrayal of the film’s lead, which earned her a BAFTA nomination for Best Actress and a win for the BAFTA Rising Star Award.
Although these performances above were certainly stellar, there was one this year that stood out to me as a performance that absolutely deserved an Oscar nomination (and yet got snubbed): Elisabeth Moss as the lead protagonist, Cecilia Kass, in Leigh Whannell’s rendition of The Invisible Man. Whannell’s version of this classic tale focuses heavily on abuse and the effects it can have on victims, and Moss was nothing short of astounding in her portrayal of this character. Her performance is incredibly intense at moments, while also meticulously subtle at others. With every apprehensive glance, with every hurried breath, Moss skillfully portrays her character’s fear and emotional exhaustion with fastidiousness. Ultimately, Cecilia gets her revenge, in the most badass way possible, and Moss executes the whole operation to perfection. For years, dating back to Mad Men, Elisabeth Moss has been a critically acclaimed staple of television—this year, Moss deserved an Academy Award nod for her silver-screen talents.
Conclusion
Who Could Win: Viola Davis or Frances McDormand
This year, the Best Actress category at the Academy Awards is by far the most competitive of any other acting category. So far, a different woman has won the Golden Globe Award (Andra Day), Critics’ Choice Movie Award (Carey Mulligan), Screen Actors Guild Award (Viola Davis), and British Academy Film Award (Frances McDormand) for Best Actress. Carey Mulligan is getting slightly better odds than the rest of the field, and of the three other Best Actress award winners this season, Viola Davis and Frances McDormand stand the best chance to pull off an “upset.” (In light of how tight this race is, nothing will actually be an upset this year.) McDormand is currently getting +400 odds, while Davis is getting a stunning +200 odds, which is insanely close to what Mulligan is receiving. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Davis or McDormand took home the Oscar on Sunday.
Who Should Win: Vanessa Kirby
I truly enjoyed each performance nominated in this category, but for me, the most emotionally affecting of the year—Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman—deserves the Oscar. It is a beautifully soul-crushing portrayal of a first-time mother struck by tragedy, and Kirby would have my vote, full stop, if I had one to give.
Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan
As I alluded to above, this category is going to come down to the wire. Carey Mulligan, this year’s winner at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, is currently getting the best betting odds to take home the gold at +125. Although not really a frontrunner due to the razor-thin margin between the nominees, my educated guess is Mulligan takes home the Oscar. Promising Young Woman is a vital, timely piece of cinema, and Mulligan is its standpoint star. Prior to this year’s nominations, Davis and McDormand accounted for a combined 8 Oscar nominations and 3 wins—this is only Mulligan’s second nomination ever, and I think the Academy will welcome her into the winner’s circle.
In today’s post, I will review the Best Supporting Actor category for this year’s Oscars. Let’s go!
The Nominees
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
In Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, which tells the true story of a group of anti-war activists standing trial for allegedly inciting riots at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Sacha Baron Cohen plays Abbie Hoffman, the outspoken Flower Power leader who co-founded the “Yippies” (i.e., the Youth International Party). Baron Cohen is exhilarating as Abbie Hoffman, and his overall fit as a performer for this role is embodied in this quote by Baron Cohen on playing Hoffman: “There’s the public persona of Abbie where he’s trying to inspire people and then there’s the private Abbie. So there’s a balance between the clown and the intellect.” Baron Cohen strikes gold in portraying this dichotomic nature of Hoffman, using his trademark funnyman skills to perfection, while also emoting the superb dramatic elements of the character. In a year where Baron Cohen dominated entertainment headlines for his Borat sequel, his true prowess as an actor was most exemplified by his turn as Abbie Hoffman.
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
In Judas and the Black Messiah, Daniel Kaluuya portrays Fred Hampton, the real-life chairman of the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party and deputy chairman of the national Black Panther Party, who was gunned down by law enforcement in 1969. This film should be required viewing as a remarkable depiction of the underlying racial, societal, and political forces which both brought Fred Hampton to prominence and resulted in his assassination by the Chicago police. And aside from the film as a whole, Judas and the Black Messiah is a must-see for Kaluuya’s awe-inspiring performance. As Fred Hampton, Kaluuya is electrifying. Hampton was clearly a gripping public speaker, and Kaluuya shines the most in the scenes depicting rallies and speeches. The film’s signature scene takes places in a church following Hampton’s release from prison, wherein Hampton delivers an iconic movie speech to his many supporters. It’s single-handedly one of my favorite scenes in movie history, and Kaluuya is front and center. During that speech, Kaluuya masterfully embodies the true essence of Fred Hampton’s vital role as a revolutionary. It’s some of the greatest acting I have ever seen, which only adds to Kaluuya’s other impressive moments in the film’s quieter, more intimate scenes. This year, there simply was not a better supporting performance by an actor than Daniel Kaluuya as the one-of-a-kind Black Panther leader.
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami…)
Regina King’s directorial debut One Night in Miami…, written by Kemp Powers and based on his 2013 stage play of the same name, gives a fictionalized version of a meeting between civil rights icons Malcolm X (played by Kingsley Ben-Adir), Cassius Clay/Muhammad Ali (played Eli Goree), Jim Brown (played by Aldis Hodge), and Sam Cooke (played by Leslie Odom Jr.) at a motel in Miami, Florida, following Ali’s title-winning fight against Sonny Liston in 1964. I was personally impressed by each of the four central actors’ performances in this movie, but as the Academy and numerous other award shows have noted via their nominations, Leslie Odom Jr. clearly stands out as the best. Odom Jr. first became a household name a few years ago due to his transfixing performance as Aaron Burr in the critically acclaimed Broadway musical Hamilton, but in One Night in Miami…, he demonstrates why he’s a true force to be reckoned with on the silver screen. In this film, Odom Jr.’s transformation into Sam Cooke is exquisite, and his acting skills are most on display in the scenes debating and arguing with Ben-Adir’s Malcolm X about the strategic ins and outs of the civil rights movement. (Not to mention Odom Jr. utilizes his award-winning vocal skills in a beautiful performance of Cooke’s famed “A Change Is Gonna Come” toward the end of the film.) Leslie Odom Jr. put on a show as Sam Cooke, and for that, he received a deserved first Oscar nomination. (Odom Jr. is actually nominated twice this year, as he also received an Oscar nod for Best Original Song for co-writing “Speak Now” from the same film.)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sound of Metal tells the story of Ruben (played by Riz Ahmed), a recovering drug addict and drummer in a hard metal band, who suddenly loses his hearing. Eventually, Ruben makes his way to a sober-living community for deaf people, which is run by Joe (played by Paul Raci), a recovering alcoholic who lost his hearing in the Vietnam War. If it weren’t for Daniel Kaluuya’s justified domination in the Best Supporting Actor category this awards season, I would heavily campaign for Raci to take home all the wins. His acting in Sound of Metal is incredible as he deftly portrays Joe as an unflappable, yet compassionate figure. A performer with over 30 years of acting experience, Raci’s breakout role was a match made in heaven—although Raci isn’t deaf, he is a C.O.D.A. (i.e., child of deaf adults) and is fluent in American Sign Language. This deeply personal context for Raci’s portrayal of Joe only adds to the magnetism of his performance and the authenticity of the film overall. One of the most emotional scenes in the entire movie (a heartbreaking conversation late in the film between Joe and Ruben at a kitchen table) provided Raci his Oscar moment. I couldn’t be more excited to see the Academy bestow this much-deserved nomination on Paul Raci.
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
In Judas and the Black Messiah, Lakeith Stanfield plays William “Bill” O’Neil (i.e., the titular Judas), the criminal-turned-informant who infiltrates the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party for the FBI. I am beyond frustrated by Stanfield’s nomination in the Best Supporting Actor category. It’s not because Stanfield didn’t give us an Oscar-worthy performance—he delivered in this movie some of the year’s best acting, period. Rather, my annoyance resides in the fact every movie has to have a lead, and in this film, it is Stanfield. This is his character’s story. Expectantly, the Judas and the Black Messiah folks campaigned for Stanfield in the Best Actor category (while Kaluuya received support in the Best Supporting Actor category). But apparently Stanfield received more votes from Academy voters in this category, so here we are. Regardless, Stanfield is magnificent as the controversial Bill O’Neil. The character is clearly the film’s antagonist, and yet, it’s clear O’Neil is a complex figure, progressively more tortured by his informant role as time goes by and the stakes get higher. Stanfield walks his character’s moral tightrope between good and bad, right and wrong, with absolute precision. As an audience, it’s easy to be frustrated with O’Neil one moment, while feeling great empathy for him in the next—and it is Stanfield’s expertly nuanced portrayal that makes people care about the character.
Snubs and Other Performances
Other than the Oscar-nominated actors discussed above, this past year featured a number of other noteworthy acting performances from performers in supporting roles. First, the always-impressive Barry Keoghan is fascinating in The Shadow of Violence (titled Calm with Horses outside of the United States) as Dymphna, a member of an Irish family of drug dealers who puts up the front of a tough guy, while truly being a more scared, vulnerable character—the actor plays boss/sidekick to the film’s true hardman lead, played by Cosmo Jarvis, and Keoghan again shows why he is one of the best young actors in the world. Second, in the unfortunately average The Little Things, Jared Leto is definitely one of the best parts in his portrayal of Albert Sparma, an enigmatic man suspected of multiple murders. Even if the film underwhelmed, Leto was great, truly sinking into his character. Additionally, in Minari, aside from the other outstanding performances, a couple of which garnered Oscar nominations, Alan Kim was delightful as David Yi, highlighted by his bantering scenes with his grandmother, played by Youn Yuh-jung. Kim is currently 8 years old, and we are sure to see more of him very soon.
However, the one performance I expected to receive an Oscar nomination which didn’t was veteran of comedy Bill Murray in Sofia Coppola’s Apple TV+ film On the Rocks. Murray and Coppola previous collaborated in 2003’s Lost in Translation, for which Murray received his first Academy Award nomination, and in On the Rocks, Murray is clearly back to his best. Murray plays Felix Keane, the father of Rashida Jones’s character Laura Keane. When Laura experiences some strain in her marriage, suspecting her husband of cheating, she taps Felix for help. Laura clearly gets more than she bargained for, as Felix immediately inserts himself way too far into Laura’s life. The key to Murray’s brilliance in On the Rocks is how Felix interferes with Laura’s personal life in an incredibly charismatic way. This relationship between father and daughter is clearly dynamic, and you cannot help but love Felix, despite all his flaws. And for me, that was all Bill Murray. He’s perfect in this role, almost as if he was made to play the part. And for that, I really wish he could have been rewarded with a second Oscar nomination.
Sacha Baron Cohen is currently getting odds of +900 to render an upset in this category, better than any of the other three underdog nominees. However, I don’t anticipate a surprise for Best Supporting Actor. the Academy throws us a curveball here, look for Pesci to be the only other nominee with a chance.
Who Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya
This year, for me, who should win isn’t even a question. There were some really great performances worthy of Oscar nominations…and then there was Daniel Kaluuya—a class of his own!
Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Not only is Daniel Kaluuya currently getting -2000 odds from the bookmakers, but he’s already secured every single win at the major pre-Oscars ceremonies, including the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, Golden Globe Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and British Academy Film Awards. This is Kaluuya’s second Oscar nomination following his breakout role in 2017’s Get Out, and for his remarkable turn as Chairman Fred Hampton, he will absolutely be heading home with his first Academy Award next Sunday.
In today’s post, I will review the Best Supporting Actress category for this year’s Oscars. Let’s go!
The Nominees
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Following his 2006 critically acclaimed political mockumentary Borat, Sacha Baron Cohen reunited with his famous Kazakh character for an equally admired sequel, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan. The sequel centers on Borat Sagdiyev’s return to the United States for the purpose of offering up his daughter Tutar (played by Maria Bakalova) to then-Vice President Mike Pence as a bribe. This movie is everything I could have expected for a new installment about the crazed happenings of Borat, but what did surprise me was just how amazing Bakalova is as Tutar—she truly is the film’s breakout star. A young Bulgarian actress with few credits to her name and no previous exposure to American audiences, Bakalova skillfully matches Baron Cohen’s wit and humor in every single scene. She deftly (and hilariously) navigates some absurdly funny scenes, such as the “bloody” debutante ball and the pregnancy clinic debacle, but the hype surrounding her encounter with Rudy Giuliani is well worth it—she handled a tricky and potentially dangerous situation like a pro. Bakalova is definitely a star in the making.
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Ron Howard’s Netflix drama Hillbilly Elegy, which is based on the memoir of the same name by J.D. Vance, follows a Yale law school student who must return to his hometown in rural Ohio to care for his mother (Amy Adams), who is battling a drug addiction—the film also prominently features flashbacks to the lead character’s childhood, which includes the narrative about his relationship with his grandmother (“Mamaw”), played by Glenn Close. This movie isn’t good. In fact, it’s consistently cringey throughout. The only bright spots at all are the acting performances by Amy Adams and Glenn Close. They were great, as usual, and Close is excellent in portraying the tough, resolute Mamaw. Despite Close’s incredibly physical transformation for the role, I didn’t feel the Academy should dignify the one decent aspect of an otherwise terrible film—therefore, I was a bit surprised to see Close snag nominations at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, Golden Globe Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards, in addition to the Oscars. Then again, I unfortunately feel like the Academy is desperate to keep giving Close opportunities to win an Oscar (I am truthfully stunned she has gone winless in her previous seven nominations). Regardless of their intentions, it’s difficult for me to get excited about Close’s nomination.
Olivia Colman (The Father)
In Florian Zeller’s film The Father, Sir Anthony Hopkins plays the titular father (whose name is actually Anthony), an elderly man progressively struggling with dementia. Although Hopkins is undoubtedly the most impressive part of the film, Olivia Colman (who portrays his daughter Anne) is striking in her own right. It is clear the role of Anthony is the movie’s most heartbreaking, but truthfully, I felt a greater sense of empathy and pain for Anne, as she is the character with which the audience can most relate. Anne, a devoted daughter who takes her father into her home, ensures care is provided for Anthony in order to make him as comfortable as possible. She adores her father. And yet, she is on the receiving end of Anthony’s mood swings, harsh outbursts, and stinging comments. It’s crushing to see Anne struggling emotionally with the state of her father’s health, but Colman is truly remarkable. Above all, this performance demonstrates the impeccable range Colman has—from her comedic turns in Fleabag and The Favourite (the latter of which earned her an Oscar two years ago) to her immensely dramatic roles in The Crown and The Father, Olivia Colman is unmistakably one of the most talented performers in the business.
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Mank tells the story of legendary Hollywood screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman) and the origin of his role in helping write the script for Orson Welles’s masterpiece, Citizen Kane. In the film, a black-and-white love letter to Hollywood’s “Golden Age,” Amanda Seyfried plays actress Marion Davies, William Randolph Hearst’s mistress and allegedly the real-life inspiration for the Citizen Kane character Susan Alexander Kane. In Mank, Fincher offers a more holistic perspective on Davies’s life compared to her Citizen Kane counterpart, and although the film underwhelmed from my perspective, Seyfried is indubitably exquisite in her portrayal. Seyfried nails Davies’s Brooklyn accent and period-specific mannerisms, and above all, she steals the show in each scene shared with Oldman’s Mank. Thus far in her career, Seyfried is more known for her roles in comedic and romantic films, like Mean Girls, the Mamma Mia! series, Dear John, and Ted 2. However, in 2012, Seyfried proved her dramatic worth via a wonderful performance in Les Misérables. And now, Seyfried has upped the ante, reaching the crowning achievement in her career up to this point with a stellar performance in Mank. Here’s to hoping we see Seyfried take on more superb dramatic roles.
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
A semi-autobiographical film by writer/director Lee Isaac Chung, Minari follows South Korean immigrants Jacob Yi (Steven Yeun) and his wife Monica Yi (Han Ye-ri) as they move their family from California to rural Arkansas to fulfill Jacob’s dream of starting a Korean produce farm. At one point in the film, Monica’s mother Soon-ja (played by Youn Yuh-jung) comes to stay with the family in order to take care of the children while Jacob and Monica work. I have two important thoughts, which are relevant for this review: (1) Minari is one of the best films this year, period, and (2) Youn Yuh-jung is my single favorite part. Chung’s film spends a great deal of time exploring the development of the relationship between Soon-ja and David (played by Alan Kim), Jacob and Monica’s youngest child. David initially doesn’t enjoy his grandmother living with them (especially because he’s forced to share a room with her), but the relationship blossoms into a sweet bond. Youn, an acclaimed South Korean film star, portrays Soon-ja dazzlingly. Soon-ja is foul-mouthed, blunt, and downright funny, and Youn fits the role like a glove, delivering many of Minari’s most memorable moments. In one scene, David wets the bed, and Soon-ja asks if his penis is broken, to which David snaps back, “It’s not a ‘penis.’ It’s called a ‘ding dong.’” Later in a church scene when a boy asks David if he can spend the night, Soon-ja (commenting on Monica’s decision to say “no”) quips, “Ding dong broken.” This is the epitome of Soon-ja, and Youn is excellent in her performance.
Snubs and Other Performances
In addition to this year’s nominees, there were a handful of other noteworthy performances that easily could have earned a nomination, especially in place of Glenn Close. First, Dominique Fishback was stellar in her real-life portrayal of Fred Hampton’s girlfriend Deborah Johnson in Judas and the Black Messiah—she is pitch perfect, especially during her character’s more emotional scenes. (Fishback received a BAFTA nomination for her performance.) Additionally, Priyanka Chopra Jonas was remarkable as Pinky in The White Tiger—the Ramin Bahrani-directed film, set in India, was a surprise hit this year (and one of my personal favorites), and Chopra Jonas’s performance was wonderful.
For me, though, the biggest snub in this category was Hollywood legend Ellen Burstyn for her moving performance in Netflix’s Pieces of a Woman. The film, directed by Hungarian filmmaker Kornél Mundruczó, focuses on Vanessa Kirby’s character Martha Weiss, whose baby dies shortly after a home birth. A six-time Oscar nominee (and Oscar winner for Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore), Burstyn plays Martha’s wealthy, domineering mother Elizabeth Weiss, a headstrong Holocaust survivor maintaining a tense relationship with Martha. Burstyn is nothing short of incredible in Pieces of a Woman. The highlight of the film is a clash between Martha and Elizabeth at a dinner table, and although it is the defining moment which helped earn Kirby her first Oscar nomination, Burstyn matches her blow for blow. It is an absolute shame Burstyn missed out on an Academy Award nomination for her performance.
Maria Bakalova started the major film awards season off with a bang, taking home a win at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. Since then, however, the Borat Subsequent Moviefilm star has played second fiddle to Youn Yuh-Jung. Currently Bakalova is the lead underdog in this category, receiving +300 odds. While I cannot completely rule out a surprise win for Bakalova this year, I don’t feel confident. Regardless, if betting lines are to be believed, she certainly stands the best chance to upset the frontrunner.
Who Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung
Minari is one of the best movies of the year, and Youn Yuh-jung’s performance is arguably its strongest. Youn’s portrayal of Soon-ja is equal parts comedic and touching, and the 73-year-old veteran actress is simply brilliant. Out of all the nominees this year, it’s crystal clear Youn’s performance most deserves the Academy’s top honor.
Who Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung
Following two huge wins within the past two weeks at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the British Academy Film Awards, Youn Yuh-jung has secured her place as the frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actress category. Currently, she’s drawing -500 odds. Bakalova is still a trendy choice, but I’m growing more and more confident this year’s Oscar is going to Youn.
In today’s post, I will review the Best Documentary Feature category for this year’s Oscars. Let’s go!
The Nominees
Collective
The foundational event setting the stage for Collective is a fire in 2015 that broke out in a nightclub called Colectiv in Bucharest, Romania, which initially resulted in the death of 27 patrons and claimed nearly 40 more lives in the following weeks in light of Romania’s gravely deficient hospitals and public health infrastructure. It is these issues with Romania’s healthcare system which form the focus of the film, which follows a number of investigative journalists who delve into the bedrock of government fraud, corruption, and incompetency giving rise to a deadly public health crisis. Collective is certainly a compelling piece of investigative filmmaking, and it definitely paints a raw and harrowing picture of the Romanian government’s sheer ineptitude with respect to governance, especially as it pertains to administering its healthcare system. I will never forget the distressing footage of the fire itself and the shocking surreptitious video of the abhorrent hospital environment for the burn victims in the weeks after the fire. Streaming for free for subscribers to Hulu.
Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
Executive produced by Higher Ground Productions (founded by former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama), Crip Camp tells the story of a group of hippie teens who in the 1970s attended Camp Jened, a summer camp for youths with disabilities. The campers quickly formed an immense bond, and after their years at Camp Jened concluded, that unique sense of community breathed life into a budding civil rights movement seeking systematic change in the United States with respect to accessibility and disability rights. Although I am intimately familiar with the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (which codifies prohibitions against discrimination on the basis of disability) in light of my career as an employment lawyer, I was unaware of the fascinating story behind the journey to securing that critical piece of legislation. Crip Camp is an important film, which brings deserved attention to a critical civil rights movement. Streaming for free for subscribers to Netflix.
The Mole Agent
The setup for The Mole Agent is simple: The family of a nursing home resident in Chile tap a private investigator to hire an elderly man to go undercover at the nursing home to report back concerning whether or not the resident in question is being subjected to abuse. Enter Sergio Chamy, an 83-year-old man who answers the call to be the family’s spy. Although this synopsis likely sounds harrowing and depressing, this movie is far from that. The filmmakers present the story in a creative manner, which makes the film feel more like a spy thriller than a documentary. The highlight of The Mole Agent is Sergio, who epitomizes earnestness in the most charismatic way possible. He is a compelling lead, and he serves as a beautiful emotional hook for the overall story. Although I think a number of documentaries deserved an Oscar nod over it, The Mole Agent is still worth a watch. Streaming for free for subscribers to Hulu.
My Octopus Teacher
This film follows Craig Foster, a documentarian by trade, as he narrates the story of his seemingly unreal experience of befriending a common octopus while free diving in an underwater kelp forest near his home off the coast of Cape Town, South Africa. To put it plainly, this film absolutely captivated me. I love nature documentaries, especially those that explore sea life, but My Octopus Teacher is vastly different from the likes of Sir David Attenborough’s critically acclaimed Blue Planet series. Here, Craig Foster is not a passive observer of the underwater world he explores. Instead, he actively engages. The story of his friendship with the titular octopus is surprisingly emotional, and the film ultimately evoked a number of diverse and intense emotions in me, ranging from sweet to distressing—I was fully invested in the exploration of their relationship. Also, Foster’s homemade underwater footage is mesmerizing, showing us a world we otherwise might never see. This is definitely one of the best documentaries in recent memory. Streaming for free for subscribers to Netflix.
Time
This documentary by Garrett Bradley follows Sibil Fox Richardson as she spends over twenty years advocating for the release of her husband, who is serving a 60-year sentence in prison for an armed bank robbery they committed together. (Sibil served a few years for her role in the crime.) There couldn’t be a more apt title for a movie this year than Time. The film plays out almost as the documentary cousin of Richard Linklater’s groundbreaking narrative Boyhood—through home video footage spanning over two decades, combined with new footage chronicling her current fight to secure Rob’s clemency, the filmmakers skillfully present a tale of painful, yet resilient, perseverance against the backdrop of race relations as they particular pertain to the criminal justice system. This is an emotional documentary, in all the most inspirational ways. Streaming for free for subscribers to Amazon Prime.
Snubs and Other Great Documentaries
This past year, I watched somewhere in the ballpark of 25 documentaries, and in addition to the foregoing films, there were a handful of other wonderful documentaries released. Any of these could easily have been nominated this year in place of The Mole Agent and Collective. First, I was riveted by The Dissident, a film about the murder of The Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi officials at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October of 2018. Despite the critical acclaim heaped upon this film, it barely saw the light of day for wider audiences—I concur with the filmmaker in believing this was due to political reasons associated with Saudi Arabia. Second, All In: The Fight for Democracy was a resilient tale of former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and the topic of voter suppression in the United States. It is a thorough, well-crafted documentary, and it couldn’t be timelier in light of Georgia’s latest attempt to quash civic participation by black and brown communities. Additionally, filmmaker Kirsten Johnson’s intimate, imaginative, and darkly comedic documentary Dick Johnson Is Dead is a film I won’t soon forget—the documentary deftly portrays a daughter’s coming to grips with her father’s dementia by choregraphing and filming a number of possible ways Dick Johnson might die, with her father participating in the staged deaths.
But for me, the singular snub in this category was the Apple TV+ release Boys State, which previously won U.S. Grand Jury Prize: Documentary at the 2020 Sundance Film Festival. Boys State follows the 2018 American Legion Boys State, an annual summer program for high school boys (there is also a Girls State for high school girls) where, according to the Texas Boys State website, “each student becomes a part of the operation of his local, county, and state government” and is “exposed to the rights and privileges, the duties and the responsibilities, of a franchised citizen.” Boys State follows some very memorable characters, including wise-beyond-his-years lead Steven Garza, and the film is utterly compelling in its examination of the fascinating (and yet at times incredibly upsetting) political differences and ideologies shaping the lives of Gen Z high school boys in this country. The filmmakers definitely struck gold with this story, and it without a doubt deserved an Oscar nod this year.
Ever since nominations were first announced, this category has felt like a two-horse race, and that initial reaction has been corroborated by the betting odds. If the favorite doesn’t take home the Oscar for Best Documentary, expect the “upset” to come from Time, which is currently getting +250 odds.
Who Should Win: My Octopus Teacher
When I first turned on My Octopus Teacher, I really didn’t know what to expect. And yet, it captivated me in a way few documentaries have before. If I had a vote this year, it would most definitely be cast for My Octopus Teacher.
Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Out of all the nominees, Time currently has the most wins in a Best Documentary (or equivalent) category, picking up victories from the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and National Society of Film Critics. However, in terms of vital wins this season, My Octopus Teacher has gotten the nod, winning at the Producers Guild of America Awards and British Academy Film Awards. This category is a close one, but with -335 betting odds, I think the Oscar goes to My Octopus Teacher this year.
In today’s post, I will review the Best Leading Actor category for this year’s Oscars. Let’s go!
The Nominees
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
In legendary Spanish director Pedro Almodóvar’s latest film Pain and Glory (nominated this year for Best International Feature), Antonio Banderas stars as Salvador Mallo, an aging filmmaker battling health issues and nostalgia as he reflects upon important memories and relationships throughout his past and how they’ve shaped his present. I have not seen an immense amount of Banderas’s films, but from what I have seen, his performance in Pain and Glory is certainly his best. This movie has a lot of drama and a lot of heart, all while sprinkling in some clever humor. And although the film features some wonderful supporting performances (including Penélope Cruz as Mallo’s mother and Asier Etxeandia as his former collaborator Alberto), Pain and Glory thrives most prominently because of this stunning performance by Banderas. Whether it’s the humorous moments where Mallo is, for the first time in his life, trying heroin with Alberto, or the emotional reunion with a lover from days gone by, Banderas sinks his teeth into the role and delivers a masterful performance. It is no wonder Banderas took home the Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival in 2019.
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Quentin Tarantino’s newest masterpiece Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is set in Los Angeles in 1969 and tells the story of aging actor Rick Dalton (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his longtime stunt double Cliff Booth (Brad Pitt) as they work to find their place in the industry during the last days of Hollywood’s Golden Age. In my Best Supporting Actor post, I waxed poetic about the glorious reunion between Tarantino and Brad Pitt following their collaboration in my favorite film of all time, Inglourious Basterds. But Once Upon a Time also marks a spectacular reunion for Tarantino and DiCaprio, who previously joined forces to bring us one of the most well-acted, but despicable villains of all time, slave owner Calvin Candie in Django Unchained. As much as I loved Brad Pitt here as Cliff Booth, my favorite aspect of the film (aside from the brilliance of Tarantino’s storytelling as a whole) was DiCaprio. Rick Dalton is by far the funniest character DiCaprio has ever portrayed (yes, even more so than the real-life Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street), and he delivers a performance that, in a year where Joaquin Phoenix doesn’t play the Joker, surely would be my top pick to take home the Oscar. This performance exhibits much of DiCaprio’s range, equal parts comical and earnest. The moments that will live on in my memory forever include the Basterds-esque “anyone order fried sauerkraut?” scene; the “Easy Breezy” conversation with Julia Butters’s character; yelling at the Manson hippies with a pitcher of margaritas in his hand; and most of all, that infamous trailer argument with himself on the set of Lancer.
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story follows a couple, Nicole (Scarlett Johansson) and Charlie (Adam Driver), as they cope with a contentious coast-to-coast divorce that involves a bitter custody dispute over their eight-year-old son. Despite the sad and depressing nature of Marriage Story as a whole, it is hard to argue with the fact that the film features two utterly tremendous performances from its leading actors. I have already discussed Johansson’s performance in my Best Leading Actress post, but with respect to Driver, his portrayal of New York-based theater director Charlie is one of the most emotionally shattering acting performances of 2019. Although the film follows both Charlie and Nicole through their separation and divorce, Marriage Story eventually homes in more distinctly on Charlie’s struggles. (The character arc of Nicole is vital to the story, but given Baumbach’s own divorce history with ex-wife Jennifer Jason Leigh, the self-reflection through via Charlie is unsurprising.) Although the scene has been turned into a bit of a meme via Twitter, the argument between Charlie and Nicole in Charlie’s LA apartment (wherein Driver angrily proclaims “Every day I wake up and hope you’re dead”) is etched in my memory forever, and it certainly provided Driver his “Oscar moment.”
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Joker, co-written and directed by Todd Phillips, is an origin story for the infamous Joker villain from the DC Comics. The film follows Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix), a wannabe stand-up comedian with severe emotional instability who, over the course of the story, spirals down into a dangerous and violent state of madness. Upon release, Joker polarized audiences for its depiction of mental illness and gun violence. But regardless of your take on the ethics of the film, Joaquin Phoenix’s staggering transformation into the famed super-villain is a sight to behold and deserves all the critical acclaim you can throw at him. One of the most obvious parts of Phoenix’s transformation is physical in nature, as he lost a significant amount of weight to give Fleck a disturbingly gaunt figure. Although impressive, the weight loss hardly compares to the haunting genius of Phoenix’s acting performance as a whole. Phoenix had massive shoes to fill with his portrayal of the future Joker, as Heath Ledger already gave the world one of the greatest performances in film history as the character in The Dark Knight (for which Ledger posthumously received the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor). Phoenix’s performance is incredible, but it’s also different from Ledger’s, as Phoenix only becomes the Joker during the climax of the film. As Arthur Fleck, Phoenix is chilling and terrifying, slowly creeping toward complete derangement throughout the movie. One of the major standpoint parts of Phoenix’s performances is the variety of maniacal laughs in Fleck’s repertoire—those things will haunt my ears forever. Phoenix’s embodiment of such a mentally ill character must have been taxing, both physically and emotionally, but his acceptance of the challenge provided cinematic history with one of its better performances. I expect Phoenix to take home the gold in a few days!
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Netflix’s The Two Popes is about Pope Benedict’s shocking decision to resign the papacy (the first to do so in over 700 years) amidst controversy and the unlikely journey of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio (later Pope Francis) to the Chair of Saint Peter as his successor. With the exception of a couple of stray scenes, this film is comprised nearly entirely of one-on-one conversations between Pope Benedict (Anthony Hopkins) and the future Pope Francis (Jonathan Pryce). Although that does not seem like a recipe for an entertaining movie, I was thoroughly surprised in the result being just that. The two characters are both Catholic, and that is really where their similarities stop. Pope Benedict is staunchly conservative, while Pope Francis is more liberal and progressive. This dichotomy of ideologies makes for some very interesting conversations and debates throughout the film as the two discuss the future of the Church, and Pryce subtly, but quietly, steals the show, turning in a wonderfully inspired performance.
Snubs and Other Performances
This category was always going to be a bit crowded this year, as 2019 was packed with wonderful performances. In addition to the five nominees, though, there were a handful of other actors that turned in noteworthy performances this year that deserve some appreciation. First, despite the fact that both Al Pacino and Joe Pesci earned Best Supporting Actor nods this year, The Irishman’s lead, Robert De Niro, missed out on a nomination, despite giving us another very memorable performance as the titular Frank “The Irishman” Sheeran. Second, Daniel Craig was marvelous in Rian Johnson’s whodunit Knives Out as private detective Benoit Blanc—this was by far the most fun role I’ve ever seen Craig in and he killed it. Third, Eddie Murphy was absolutely hilarious in his R-rated comedy comeback Dolemite Is My Name (his first R-rated film since Life in 1999), a film about the real-life comedian and legendary blaxploitation filmmaker Rudy Ray Moore. Murphy would have been a worthy nominee for the Oscar, as he received nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Additionally, Christian Bale was remarkable in Ford v Ferrari as British racecar driver Ken Miles. When I first saw the trailer for Ford v Ferrari, I thought it looked like a very paint-by-number Disney-style biopic—I was wrong. The film is fast-paced, electrifying, and extraordinarily fun, and Bale carries the film gloriously across the finish line with one of my favorite performances of his storied career.
The five nominees all gave very strong performances, but I really think the Academy made a mistake by not nominating Adam Sandler for his portrayal of jeweler and gambling addict Howard Ratner in Uncut Gems. (I guess Pryce would have to lose his spot to grant a nomination to Sandler.) This was one of my very favorite movies of the year, and although it’s great for so many reasons (including, but not limited to, the raw and frenetic pace masterfully crafted by the Safdie brothers, as well as the stellar supporting performances from Kevin Garnett, Lakeith Stanfield, and Julia Fox), it is a notch better on the strength of the single greatest acting performance of Adam Sandler’s career. On paper, Howard Ratner is incredibly unlikable. Throughout the entire film, he proves to be a bit of a sleazebag who incessantly makes bad decisions at every turn. And yet, because of Sandler’s career-defining performance, it’s impossible not to root for Howard during the movie’s thrilling twists and turns. Sandler obviously has more career ahead of him, but it’s hard not to imagine this being his masterpiece—the Academy should have rewarded that.
Conclusion
Who Could Win: Adam Driver
Just like his Marriage Story co-star Scarlett Johansson, Adam Driver is currently getting +1400 odds to pull off an upset in the Best Leading Actor category. Please read the “Who Will Win” section below for proof as to why this upset isn’t happening, though. (Yes, I know I listed Driver as someone who “could” win, but I feel obligated to at least list the second best odds amongs the other nominees no matter what, even though the odds don’t suggest Driver will be winning on Sunday.)
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Think what you want about Joker as a film, but it is patently undeniable that Joaquin Phoenix turned in one of the greatest acting performances of all time. He deserves this win more than ever before.
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Joaquin Phoenix is currently getting the second best odds of any nominee in any category to win an Oscar this year. (Phoenix’s -5000 odds are second only to Parasite’s odds to win Best International Feature, which currently stand at an astounding -10000.) With the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, SAG Award, and BAFTA already under his belt, I fully expect Phoenix to be the actor giving his acceptance speech in this category come Sunday night. If When he wins, it will be his first Oscar win.
In today’s post, I will review the Best Leading Actress category for this year’s Oscars. Let’s go!
The Nominees
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
In Harriet, Cynthia Erivo plays the titular character, Harriet Tubman, as the film chronicles the inspirational story of the renowned abolitionist’s escape from slavery and strenuous work to help others along the Underground Railroad. I was hoping to like Harriet much more than I actually did, as I was all in on a proper film adaptation for such a heroic American figure. However, the film as a whole was a bit mechanical and lacked depth. With that said, nothing can take away from the rousing performance by Erivo, who brilliantly assumes the mantle of this legendary heroine. Her performance is adept and moving, and Erivo absolutely deserves a nomination this year. Erivo is a multi-talented performer, and both her acting and singing gifts shine on the big screen. In addition to this acting nomination, Erivo is also up for Best Original Song for “Stand Up” from the film, and if she were to win in either category, she would complete the illustrious EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony).
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story follows a couple, Nicole (Scarlett Johansson) and Charlie (Adam Driver), as they cope with a contentious coast-to-coast divorce. As I have previously said, Marriage Story is not a fun watch. I am definitely an admirer of Baumbach’s previous work (btw, The Squid and the Whale and Frances Ha are far superior films to Marriage Story, and if you haven’t seen them, do yourself a favor and make that happen), but this movie is just so sad and depressing at its core. (With that said, it is still incredibly well made.) Regardless of my enjoyment of the movie as a whole, the acting is undoubtedly magnificent and thus, Johansson’s nomination is 100% deserved. Johansson vividly wears Nicole’s pain and suffering on her sleeves throughout the movie, and during the film’s most antagonistic moments between Nicole and Charlie, Johansson delivers a heartbreaking performance that highlights her acting superiority.
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
In Greta Gerwig’s film adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s critically acclaimed book Little Women, Saoirse Ronan plays the story’s protagonist Jo March, a fiery, stubborn, and self-reliant young woman attempting to make a literary career for herself, all while balancing the stresses of her family and grappling with her loneliness, a product of her stern independence. Before Ronan, Winona Ryder played Alcott’s storied heroine in a 1994 film adaptation, which garnered three Oscar nominations, including a Best Actress nomination for Ryder. In such a famous role that already evokes nostalgia for a generation that grew up on Ryder’s version, Ronan proves her worth and makes the character her own. In fact, I think Ronan’s interpretation of and performance as Jo March is superior to that of Ryder’s—for me, this isn’t entirely surprising, as Ronan is objectively one of the most talented actresses in the film business. (This is Ronan’s fourth Oscar nomination, making her the second youngest actor/actress to reach four nominations, lagging behind Jennifer Lawrence by mere months.)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Bombshell tells the story of Fox News and the sexual harassment controversy surrounding its former CEO Roger Ailes. As I previously mentioned on my Best Supporting Actress post, I wanted to like Bombshell, but I just didn’t. The makeup work is phenomenal and the acting performances are great, but the film as a whole felt incredibly surface-level and sensationalist. In the film, Charlize Theron plays Megyn Kelly, the former Fox News host who famously drew the deranged ire of Donald Trump (then a candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination), which is depicted in the film. If you’ve seen the images of Theron as Kelly, the resemblance is unbelievably uncanny—the makeup team did a phenomenal job (they are nominated for an Oscar, too) and Theron, an expert in her craft, nailed the complete embodiment of her character, including Kelly’s distinct voice and mannerisms. Although Theron was great, her performance was simply not as moving as those of her fellow nominees, and if I had a vote, I would have given her spot to Awkwafina (discussed more in detail below), who gave a more inspired performance this year that deserved to be recognized on this level.
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Judy tells the story of famed actress and singer Judy Garland’s final year of life, during which she makes a professional comeback for a short residency at the Talk of the Town nightclub in London, England. With her employment prospects dwindling in the United States and her finances in disarray, Garland is convinced to make the trip across the pond to perform for a country of fans who adore her. However, despite some early success during her show’s initial run, Garland’s personal problems increasingly interfere with her professional life, as the film documents her troubles with alcoholism and drug addiction. I will admit, the only facts I really knew about Judy Garland before this movie were that she was Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz and that she died from a drug overdose. These two facts (and the complexities involved with each) bookend this film, and everything in between is incredibly informative and wonderfully crafted to make for a solidly entertaining movie. And if you haven’t seen Judy, I urge you to believe in the Renée Zellweger hype—she is radiantly flawless in her portrayal of the troubled star. Zellweger deftly navigates the dichotomy of Judy Garland—on the one hand, she’s an incredible talent with first-rate performance abilities, and on the other, she’s hobbled by debilitating substance abuse. Like the film’s story of comeback, Judy serves as a renaissance of sorts for Zellweger, too, who is spectacular.
Snubs and Other Performances
In addition to the foregoing actresses, there were a handful of other actresses that turned in performances this year that deserve some attention, including one that should have received a nomination instead of Charlize Theron. First, Lupita Nyong’o was stellar in Jordan Peele’s Us. Although I really didn’t enjoy the film (I can usually overlook a few plot holes, but goodness, that storyline just blatantly didn’t add up), it is impossible to ignore the solid work of Nyong’o as both Adelaide and her “tethered” character Red. Second, Rian Johnson’s Knives Out was creative, quirky, and a lot of fun, and Ana de Armas was one of the film’s brightest stars as a caretaker suspected of killing her employer. Additionally, I was wildly impressed with Florence Pugh’s chilling performance in Ari Aster’s eerie horror flick Midsommar, one of my favorite movies of the year—the image of Pugh’s character donning the May Queen crown is instantly iconic! I was more than pleased to see Pugh receive some Oscar love with her nomination in the Best Supporting Actress category for Little Women, but her performance in Midsommar was definitely her best this year.
Despite these wonderful performances, the biggest “snub” in this category is Awkwafina for her emotionally beautiful performance in the critically acclaimed film, The Farewell. If you recall, I already discussed Zhao Shuzhen from The Farewell being the biggest snub in the Best Supporting Actress category, but it is an even bigger travesty that Awkwafina missed out on a nomination. Awkwafina has already made her mark in the industry thanks to her comedic chops (see, e.g., Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising and Crazy Rich Asians), but in The Farewell, the 31-year-old proved that she is an absolute force to be reckoned with from a dramatic perspective. Although the Golden Globes don’t historically predict the Academy Awards, insiders were confident that Awkwafina’s win would vault her to an Oscar nomination. Charlize Theron was solid as Megyn Kelly, but there is not a doubt in my mind that Awkwafina should have been nominated in her place.
Conclusion
Who Could Win: Scarlett Johansson
Like every single other acting category this year, the winner here, according to the betting lines, seems like a guarantee already. However, Scarlett Johansson is currently getting the next best odds, albeit they are +1400.
Who Should Win: Renée Zellweger
Renée Zellweger is perfect in her portrayal of Judy Garland. I believe in the hype that she is getting, and if I had a vote, I would gladly cast it for Zellweger!
Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger
Every favorite in an acting category this year has swept the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs. So, for the first time in a long while, I don’t anticipate a single upset in any of these four categories. Zellweger is getting -2000 odds as the favorite, and I look for her to definitely lock in her second career Oscar win on Sunday.
In today’s post, I will be analyzing the Best Supporting Actor category for this year’s Academy Awards, the most decorated acting category at this year’s Oscars. (The five nominees combined account for 27 career Academy Award nominations in acting categories.) As I pointed out yesterday, the format for all of these post concerning the acting categories will be (1) a review of each nominee in alphabetical order; (2) a brief discussion of my other favorite performances of the year, including any “snubs”; and (3) a breakdown of who could, should, and will win the Oscar in this category.
So let’s go!
The Nominees
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is a biopic inspired by a real-life Esquire article about Fred Rogers (better known as Mr. Rogers) by journalist Tom Junod titled, “Can You Say…Hero?” Although the film takes inspiration from the famous theme song from Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood, Mr. Rogers, played by Tom Hanks, is merely a supporting character. Hanks is obviously one of the greatest actors of his generation, and in this film, he is great in his embodiment of the calm, soft-spoken Mr. Rogers—although not looking physically like Mr. Rogers, Hanks nails the voice and mannerisms. But although I enjoyed his performance, it didn’t feel incredible invigorating for me, especially since Hanks just played Walt Disney in 2013’s Saving Mr. Banks, which this film felt so eerily similar to. I like Tom Hanks, and I really enjoyed him here, but I couldn’t help but think name recognition played a major role in not only this nomination, but also its companions at the Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTAs.
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
At first glance, I didn’t think Netflix’s The Two Popes was going to be a movie I’d enjoy, but in the end, I was thoroughly surprised by and taken with its charisma. The film is about Pope Benedict’s shocking decision to resign the papacy (the first to do so in over 700 years) amidst controversy and the unlikely journey of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio (later Pope Francis) to the Chair of Saint Peter as his successor. The plot is simple, and the film is executed through Sorkin-esque dialogue between the two main characters as they debate and discuss many topics, most importantly their vastly different religious ideologies. Pope Benedict is incredible conservative, while Cardinal Bergoglio (played by Jonathan Pryce, who was nominated for Best Actor) is widely progressive. Both of the actors are exquisite and authentic in their portrayal of these real-life characters on the brink of a major shift for the Catholic Church, and per usual, the legendary Sir Anthony Hopkins is masterful.
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, an epic 209-minute film, tells the story of Frank “The Irishman” Sheeran (Robert De Niro) who became a hitman for the Bufalino crime family and a close associate of Jimmy Hoffa (Pacino), the leader of the Teamsters. Surprisingly, The Irishman was Pacino’s very first collaboration with Scorsese, and it definitely left me wishing the two worked together more. In his portrayal of Jimmy Hoffa, Pacino returns to his peak acting prowess. Over the years, some believe Pacino has become a caricature of himself, resorting to the loud and boisterous delivery made famous in his Oscar-winning role in A Scent of a Woman far too often. In The Irishman, Pacino taps into those infamous rowdy and ostentatious traits, but he does so in a way that is extraordinarily reinvigorating—it is the Pacino we’ve grown to know, but it never feels like old hat. This is Pacino’s 9th Oscar nomination, but it’s his first since his lone win 27 years ago. As Hoffa, Pacino was back to his best, and I couldn’t be more thrilled to see him back at the Oscars as a nominee.
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
In The Irishman, Joe Pesci plays Russell Bufalino, a mobster and crime boss of the Bufalino crime family. Pesci came out of an extended retirement to play his role in The Irishman, and some reports indicate he actually turned down the role over 50 times before finally agreeing to do it. We should all count ourselves lucky for his decision to jump in. In this film, Pesci is as we’ve never seen him before, especially in the mob genre. A frequent collaborator of Scorsese, we’ve learned to expect Pesci to embody the smack-talking, loud-mouth, larger-than-life, over-the-top character traits from Scorsese’s Goodfellas and Casino. (And oh, how I love Pesci when he’s in that zone.) But here, Pesci is distinctively restrained, exemplifying a strange sense of calmness. It is this aspect of Pesci’s performance that not only steals the show but also makes the character eerily more sinister than past Pesci characters—the guy plays a caring father figure to De Niro’s character with a great deal of compassion, all the while being someone who can call in a hit like it’s nothing. This will go down as one of Pesci’s greatest performances of all time.
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Quentin Tarantino’s newest masterpiece Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is set in Los Angeles in 1969 and tells the story of aging actor Rick Dalton (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his longtime stunt double Cliff Booth (Brad Pitt) as they work to find their place in the industry during the last days of Hollywood’s Golden Age. I am admittedly a huge fan of Tarantino and his work (Inglourious Basterds is my favorite movie of all time), and when I describe my love of Once Upon a Time to people, I tell them that it’s just a movie that was made for me. (Tarantino’s exquisite storytelling set against the backdrop of a glorious era of cinematic and cultural history is a recipe for success.) And from an acting standpoint, DiCaprio and Pitt are an amazing duo and are truly simpatico. And this film marks an outstanding return to the Tarantino set for Pitt, who dazzled in his memorable role as Lt. Aldo Raine in Inglourious Basterds. Here, Tarantino gets the absolute best out of Pitt once more. Cliff Booth is just cool, and Tarantino couldn’t have chosen a better performer to embody that swagger. Highlights for Pitt in this movie include his fight with Bruce Lee, fending off hippies in the Manson cult at Spawn Ranch, and that hilariously unrestrained ending involving Pitt high on an acid-dipped cigarette. In this movie, Brad Pitt is in his element, and oh, what a wonderful element it is.
Snubs and Other Performances
In addition to this year’s nominees, there were a handful of other noteworthy performances this year that easily could have been in contention for the Oscar. First, although The Lighthouse did not necessarily work for me (which was a surprise, as I generally love everything A24 Films puts out), there is no denying that Willem Dafoe’s gruff portrayal of lighthouse keeper Thomas Wake is superbly deranged as one half of the film’s two-man show. Second, Dolemite Is My Name was one of my favorite out-and-out comedies of the year. And not only was it the vehicle for Eddie Murphy’s spectacular R-rated renaissance, but it also provided a humorous return for Wesley Snipes, who portrayed the real-life blaxploitation star D’Urville Martin. Additionally, I really enjoyed The Last Black Man in San Francisco (shout out to A24 again), and although Jimmie Fails was great as the lead, I was most impressed with Jonathan Majors as Jimmie’s sidekick “Mont”—the character is eccentric, artistic, and caring, and Majors was absolutely brilliant in his execution.
One of the single best supporting performances of the year, though, came courtesy of legendary South Korean actor Song Kang-ho in Parasite. Bong Joon-ho’s masterpiece is a darkly comedic exploration of class inequalities, and Song is extraordinary as Kim Ki-taek, the patriarch of a poor Korean family who uses ingenuity and deception to infiltrate the home of the wealthy Park family as employees. The entire acting ensemble in Parasite is collectively magnificent. (In fact, the group won the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.) However, Song is definitely the film’s brightest star, and he was thoroughly deserving of an Oscar nomination this year.
Conclusion
Who Could Win: Joe Pesci
Joe Pesci is currently getting odds of +1200 to render an upset in this category, better than any of the other three underdog nominees by quite a bit. (For instance, Al Pacino is next best, but his odds currently sit at +2800.) I don’t anticipate a surprise for Best Supporting Actor, but if the Academy throws us a curveball here, look for Pesci to be the only other nominee with a chance.
Who Should Win: Brad Pitt
I love Tarantino’s characters, and I love the actors and actresses he chooses to portray them. Cliff Booth is a fun and charismatic character, and I wholeheartedly believe no other actor but Brad Pitt could have breathed that energetic life into Booth. Although I thoroughly enjoyed the vintage performances from Pacino and Pesci, I find Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to be a better film than The Irishman. (Pacino and Pesci also cancel each other out a bit in this category.) So Pitt gets the nod here for me.
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt
Just like Laura Dern, Brad Pitt has executed a clean sweep this awards season, taking home this award at the BAFTAs, SAG Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Golden Globes. Currently, Pitt’s odds to win the Oscar are an astounding -3335. So just like Laura Dern, it looks nearly certain that Pitt will be taking home the first Academy Award of his career in an acting category.
The Reel Countdown 